Tri-Valley Luxury Market Report: Alamo, Danville & More | Sept 2026
Luxury buyers in the Tri-Valley have more choice than they’ve had in years. Inventory is up in all four of our cities, mortgage rates hit their 2026 high in October, and the pace of sales is splitting city by city. In the luxury tier, Alamo and Dublin are still moving quickly, while Danville and San Ramon have slowed.
How this report differs from our earlier update
Our earlier post on the six economic trends impacting the luxury market looked at all home types using Redfin data. This report focuses only on the luxury segment: detached homes priced over $2,000,000 with at least 3,000 square feet, using Contra Costa Association of REALTORS® MLS data through September 2026. It also uses mostly 2026 year-to-date figures rather than single months. The two don’t always move together. In Dublin, for example, overall prices fell 8.2% this fall, while luxury homes sold faster than last year. That gap is part of the story.
September 2026 luxury market at a glance
Months of supply = homes for sale divided by average monthly closed sales over the past 12 months. Days on market is the median of monthly medians.
Alamo luxury homes: still the fastest market of the four
Alamo had 16 luxury homes for sale in September, up 45% from 11 a year ago, and inventory has more than doubled since January. Homes are still selling quickly. The typical luxury home in Alamo sold in 11 days this year, compared with 27.5 days in 2025. Closed sales are up by a third, with 78 from January through September against 59 last year.
September did slow to 24 days. With more options on the market, Alamo buyers are less willing to stretch for a home that isn’t priced right.
Danville luxury real estate: the deepest market, now the most supplied
Danville is the largest luxury market of the four, and it now has the most homes for sale: 36 in September, up 71% from a year ago and the most since spring 2024. Closed sales are level with last year at 137. September brought 24 new listings but only 9 closings, and luxury homes have taken 40 to 51 days to sell since July.
Across all home types, Danville prices are still up 6.5% from a year ago, so values are holding. The change is in pace. Luxury buyers are taking longer and comparing more options, so preparation, presentation and pricing from day one decide which homes sell.
San Ramon luxury market: the slowest of the four, but stirring
San Ramon’s luxury inventory went from 2 homes in January to 10 in September, up 150% year over year. Closings are down 30% from 2025, and the typical luxury home took 41 days to sell this year, compared with 17 last year.
There are signs of life. Pending sales doubled in September, from 5 to 10, so buyers are returning for San Ramon homes that are priced right. Across all home types, San Ramon prices are up 2.8% and homes sell in about a month. The luxury tier is where the slowdown shows.
Dublin luxury homes: holding up better than the broader market
Across all home types, Dublin softened this fall: the median sale price fell 8.2% year over year, and homes took 44 days to sell in September. The luxury tier tells a different story. Dublin had 9 luxury homes for sale in September, up from 8 a year ago, and 9 new listings, tied for the most this year. The typical luxury home sold in 18 days in 2026, faster than 21.5 in 2025. Closings are down 6%, and it’s a small market, so read each month with care.
The national luxury market is holding steady
Across North America, single-family luxury sales rose 1.72% in August compared with a year earlier, according to the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. The median sold price rose 4.5%, days on market fell 25.7%, and new listings are rising too. Demand is there, and so is more competition.
The economic backdrop for Tri-Valley buyers
Mortgage rates at 7.4%. The 30-year fixed hit its 2026 high on October 8. Jumbo borrowers feel it most.
The Fed raised rates. The federal funds ceiling rose to 4.00% after September’s hike, the first since 2023.
Insurance costs are up. California FAIR Plan rates rose 29.1% starting October 15.
Tech stocks pulled back. An AI-led selloff on October 8 matters in a region where many buyers fund down payments with stock.
What it means for luxury sellers
Macro trends move buyers. Your local market, and your own street, moves price. With more inventory and rates at their 2026 high, the luxury homes that sell are the ones that are prepared and priced right from the first day. We don’t sell every home the same way. We adjust the levers that matter right now: price, terms, timing, preparation and presentation.
Frequently asked questions
Is it a good time to sell a luxury home in Danville?
Buyers are active, but Danville has 36 luxury homes for sale, the most since spring 2024, and homes have taken 40 to 51 days to sell since July. Well-prepared, well-priced homes are selling. Overpriced homes are sitting.
How fast are luxury homes selling in Alamo?
The median luxury home in Alamo sold in 11 days in 2026 to date, the fastest of the four cities. September slowed to 24 days.
Which Tri-Valley city has the most luxury homes for sale?
Danville, with 36 detached homes over $2 million for sale in September 2026.
Why do luxury numbers look different from the overall market?
Homes over $2 million attract a different pool of buyers, often with more equity and cash, so they don’t always follow the broader market. In Dublin this fall, overall prices fell while luxury homes sold faster than last year.
What counts as a luxury home in this report?
Detached homes priced over $2,000,000 with at least 3,000 square feet.
Thinking about buying or selling?
Whatever the market is doing, we’ll help you build the right strategy for your next move. Text us at 925.922.4482 or drop us a line via our contact us form.
Data: Contra Costa Association of REALTORS® / InfoSparks through September 2026; detached homes over $2,000,000 with 3,000+ sq ft. All-home-type comparisons: Redfin, August–September 2026. National data: Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, August 2026. Equal Housing Opportunity. If your property is currently listed with a broker, this is not intended as a solicitation.
